October has arrived, and with it comes that familiar fall feeling: routines are back, the weather is changing, and many Manitobans are starting to think about what comes next.
Maybe your mortgage renewal is approaching. Maybe buying a home is finally starting to feel realistic. Or perhaps you’ve been watching the market and wondering whether you should make a move now or wait.
There’s a lot happening in the economy, but the Manitoba story is actually quite interesting. Home prices have remained relatively resilient even as sales have cooled, while the Bank of Canada has kept its policy rate steady.
Here’s what I’m watching this October—and what it could mean for you.
Where interest rates stand heading into October
The Bank of Canada held its overnight policy rate at 2.25% on September 2, where it has remained throughout 2026 so far. The Bank noted that Canada’s economy strengthened in the second quarter, but inflation and economic uncertainty remain important considerations.
That stability is welcome after several years of significant rate movement, but it doesn’t mean every mortgage rate will stay put.
Variable mortgage rates are more directly influenced by the Bank of Canada’s policy rate, while fixed mortgage rates are influenced heavily by the bond market. In September, the Bank noted that longer-term bond yields had moved higher globally, including in Canada.
Translation? Don’t assume that waiting for the Bank of Canada automatically means you’ll get a better fixed mortgage rate.
The next Bank of Canada rate announcement is scheduled for October 28, 2026, along with a new Monetary Policy Report.
What’s happening in Manitoba real estate?
Closer to home, the Winnipeg regional market is giving us an interesting combination: fewer sales, but higher average prices.
Through August 2026, the year-to-date average price for a residential detached home reached $468,679—up 3% from 2025 and 8% above the five-year average. The year-to-date average condominium price was $288,834, also 3% higher than last year.
At the same time, overall MLS® sales through August were down 6% year over year, while residential detached sales were down 7%. Total listings were only 1% below last year’s level and were in line with the five-year average.
So while activity has slowed from 2025, prices have remained resilient.
For buyers, that makes preparation especially important. A slower market doesn’t necessarily mean dramatically lower prices—and having your financing organized before you find the right property can make the process much smoother.
Renewing this fall? Start the conversation early.
If your mortgage is coming up for renewal over the next several months, this is one area where I wouldn’t leave things until the renewal letter lands in your mailbox.
Your current lender’s offer is just that: an offer.
A renewal is an opportunity to look at your entire mortgage again. How much do you still owe? Has your income changed? Do you have other higher-interest debt? Are you planning a renovation, move or major purchase? Would a different mortgage structure make more sense for the next stage of your life?
And perhaps most importantly: Does your current lender’s offer actually make sense compared with your other options?
The lowest advertised rate isn’t always the whole story. Prepayment privileges, penalties, portability and flexibility can all matter.
Fixed or variable in October 2026?
This remains one of the biggest questions I hear.
Rather than trying to perfectly predict where rates will go next, I like to bring the conversation back to the borrower.
A fixed mortgage can provide predictable payments and protection from rate changes during the term. A variable mortgage gives you greater exposure to changes in prime rates—which means your borrowing costs can move if monetary policy changes.
Neither option is automatically right for everyone.
The better question is:
Which option fits your budget, your comfort level and your plans for the next few years?
Interestingly, the Bank of Canada’s most recent Market Participants Survey showed a median forecast of 2.25% for the policy rate through the end of 2026, although respondents differed on whether risks leaned toward a higher or lower rate path. Forecasts are not guarantees, but it reinforces why I’d be cautious about building a mortgage strategy around one particular rate prediction.
Thinking about renovating instead of moving?
Fall is also a popular time to start planning home projects.
If you’re considering a kitchen renovation, addition, basement development or larger update, it’s worth looking at the financing before committing to the project.
Depending on your circumstances, options may include refinancing your mortgage or accessing available home equity. The best approach depends on your equity, existing mortgage, borrowing costs and overall financial picture.
And remember: financing a renovation isn’t just about asking, “Can I borrow the money?”
It’s also about asking:
“How does this fit into my bigger financial plan?”
That’s the conversation worth having before the contractor arrives.
Three smart mortgage moves this October
If there’s one theme for the Manitoba mortgage market this fall, it’s prepare rather than predict.
- Buying? Get pre-approved and understand your comfortable monthly payment—not simply the maximum amount you can qualify for.
- Renewing? Start reviewing your options early rather than automatically signing your lender’s first offer.
- Already own? Review your mortgage alongside your other debt and upcoming plans. Your mortgage should work with your life, not against it.
The bottom line
There is no single “perfect” time to buy a home, renew a mortgage or make a change.
Heading into October, Manitoba’s housing market has shown price resilience even as sales activity has moderated, while the Bank of Canada has kept its policy rate at 2.25%. With another Bank of Canada decision coming on October 28, there will undoubtedly be more mortgage headlines before the month is over.
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